NOAA's Winter Outlook, Released October 15: A Very Strong El Niño Favors a Warm North and a Wet South From December to February

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its U.S. Winter Outlook on Thursday, October 15, and El Niño is written all over it. For December through February, forecasters favor warmer-than-average temperatures from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies, the Midwest and the Mississippi Valley to much of the East, and wetter-than-average conditions along the whole southern tier from the Southwest to the Southeast and up the East Coast. The drought that has gripped the Southwest and the southern Plains is expected to ease. The outlook does not forecast snow.

What NOAA said

The outlook, produced by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, gives the odds that a region's three-month temperature and total precipitation will come in above, near or below average. For this winter, warmer-than-average conditions are favored for northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East, Alaska, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Parts of the Southeast, including Florida, are most likely to land near normal, while Hawaii and much of the Southwest have equal chances of any outcome, according to the NOAA release. On the agency's map, the strongest odds of a warm winter, 60 to 70 percent, run through the Pacific Northwest, the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and the Northeast.

Precipitation follows the classic El Niño pattern. Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the southern tier from the Southwest to the Southeast and along the East Coast; the map puts the highest odds, 70 percent and more, over Georgia, northern Florida and the Carolina coast. Drier-than-average conditions are favored for Hawaii, much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West, parts of the Great Lakes and the western Pacific islands. The Intermountain West, the northern Plains and the Ohio Valley have equal chances. NOAA's separate drought outlook, which runs from October 15 through January, expects drought to improve or end in the Southwest, the southern Great Plains, the Southeast and parts of the East Coast, and to develop or worsen in parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington.

"Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter," Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, said in the release, warning that "too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides." The agency repeated its standing caveat: the outlook does not project seasonal snowfall totals, because snow is generally not predictable more than about a week ahead. The next update comes on November 19.

The two maps, as NOAA issued them

Seasonal outlooks for December 2026 through February 2027, issued October 15, 2026. Colors show the probability of above- or below-average conditions; white means equal chances.

Warmer	Northern California, Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East, Alaska, Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands
Near normal	Parts of the Southeast, including Florida
Wetter	Southern tier from the Southwest to the Southeast, and the East Coast
Drier	Hawaii, much of Alaska, northern Mountain West, parts of the Great Lakes, western Pacific islands
Drought	Improving or ending in the Southwest, southern Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast; developing in parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington

How strong is this El Niño? Chance of a "historic" event

Probability that the three-month ocean index reaches +2.5 °C or more, per NOAA's October 8 ENSO discussion.

Sep–Oct–Nov 2026 · 54%

Oct–Nov–Dec 2026 · 83%

Nov–Dec–Jan 2026–27 · 70%

Sources: NOAA, "El Niño looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook," October 15, 2026; NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlook maps (public domain) and ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, October 8, 2026 (Niño-3.4 index +2.1 °C). Bars drawn to scale.

The ocean behind the map

The reason the outlook leans so hard one way is an El Niño that NOAA's Climate Prediction Center rated, in its October 8 discussion, as likely to stay strong to very strong through January–March 2027, with better than an 83 percent chance. The Niño-3.4 index, the standard measure of warming in the central equatorial Pacific, stood at plus 2.1 degrees Celsius, according to the CPC discussion. NASA, which tracks the event with the Sentinel-6 and PACE satellites, said the same day as the outlook that NOAA gives an 83 percent chance that the strongest El Niño since 1950 is now under way, with eastern Pacific surface waters about 3 degrees Fahrenheit above the long-term average and local sea levels up by as much as 1 to 1.3 feet, according to NASA Science.

El Niño is a warming of the tropical Pacific that shifts the jet stream over North America, steering storms across the southern United States and leaving the north milder. The name is Spanish for "the boy child"; South American fishermen gave it to the warm current that tended to arrive around Christmas. A winter outlook is a statement of odds, not a promise: a 60 percent chance of a warm winter still leaves four winters in ten that are not.

What it means spiritually

Facts first: this is a probabilistic climate forecast from government scientists, and nothing in it tells you whether the solstice will be snowy. Everything below is interpretation.

Every culture that kept a Wheel of the Year also kept a weather forecast, because the dark half of the year was the half that could kill you. The persimmon seed with its spoon, knife or fork, the breastbone of the Thanksgiving goose, the woolly bear's stripes: these are the ancestors of Thursday's map, attempts to read a long winter in a small sign before the first frost. NOAA reads the ocean instead of a seed, and it is honest enough to speak in percentages. There is no quarrel between the two. One is a measurement; the other is a ritual of attention, a way of standing in October and turning your face toward February on purpose.

What the outlook actually describes is a lopsided winter. If you live along the northern tier, the season between Samhain and Imbolc may be gentler than the stories, and the work of the dark months, rest, grief, the slow fire on the hearth, will have to be chosen rather than imposed by the weather. If you live across the South, the element of the season is water, and the practical magic is the oldest kind: clear the gutters, know where the creek rises, and let the rain do the cleansing it is good at. Either way, the longest night still falls on December 21, and no forecast moves it.

What you can do now

• Read your own region on the maps above. Warm odds are not a guarantee; NOAA's white areas mean the forecast has nothing to tell you, and the agency updates the outlook on November 19.
• Make your folk forecast now, before the first frost. Our guides to the persimmon seed and the goose bone explain how each sign is read. Write the result down and check it against March.
• If you are in the wet South, treat water seriously. NOAA's own warning is flash floods on dry ground; the agency points to weather.gov for local watches and warnings before any outdoor ritual by moving water.
• Plan the longest night by the sky, not the thermometer. The solstice is December 21 whatever the weather; our winter solstice rituals work indoors or out.
• Mark the next real change first. Clocks go back on Sunday, November 1; our evening practice for the early dark is written for that week.

Pairs well with: Cedar, Orange & Cinnamon Smudge Stick, a warming hearth bundle for the first cold evenings of the dark half of the year.

Sources

• NOAA, "El Niño looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook," news release, October 15, 2026. noaa.gov
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, valid December–January–February 2026–27, issued October 15, 2026 (maps reproduced above, public domain). cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center, "ENSO Diagnostic Discussion," October 8, 2026 (El Niño Advisory; Niño-3.4 +2.1 °C; strong-to-very-strong El Niño likely through JFM 2027, greater than 83 percent). cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
• NASA Science, "NASA Satellites Observe Historic 2026 El Niño," October 15, 2026. science.nasa.gov
• Questions about an order or a product: 28@templeofdesire.com

Cover image: NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal temperature outlook for December 2026 to February 2027, issued October 15, 2026 (public domain, Image: NOAA/CPC). The spiritual readings in this article are tradition and lived practice, not scientifically proven.